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Deshima Weekly Catch #8

Deshima • 6 March 2023

Salesforce, Moncler, Flat Beer Sales, Hydrogen update 

Salesforce

Salesforce announced good and high-quality numbers. Thanks to the arrival of no less than 5 activist shareholders led by Elliott Management, Salesforce is reformulating priorities from growth to profitability. Implementation is swift. In one year, the Gross margin has risen 4% to 22.5% and management now expect their 27% GM 2025 target to be hit in 2024. FY2024 forecast of 10% topline growth leaves room for an upside surprise. CRM trades on 22X its expected next-year EPS. At 6x, Salesforce EV/Sales ratio has halved in the last three years and is close to a 10-year bottom. Salesforce, a darling for investors in the post-covid tech rally, has erased all its gains and become a significant long-term underperformer. Salesforce shares have underperformed the S&P500 Index by 20% in the last year, by 32% in the last three years and by 23% in the last five years. 

 

Moncler published strong revenues were up 27% in 2022, despite weak demand in China. During the conference call, the management made upbeat comments on China recovery with sales trending up in January 2023.

 

On Wednesday, Thyssen Krupp disclosed more details on the new Duisburg plant which will be the first plant in Europe producing steel with hydrogen. Steel and fertilizers are the two main industries expected to use massively hydrogen. Also in the hydrogen space, NEL published good results.

 

Beer producers (Carlsberg and InBev) published flat beer volumes for 2022 contrasting with strong revenue growth for Campari and Remy Cointreau. 


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